Energy storage, solar, nuclear, grid, and critical minerals. Distilled to what changes positioning.
Ganfeng Lithium reported Q1 2026 operating income of RMB 9.20 billion (+143.8% YoY) and net profit of RMB 1.84 billion, swinging from a year-ago loss and landing near the top of the April 16 positive-profit-alert range. The same rebalance shape Albemarle confirmed on the western-supply side, now confirmed on the China side. Two of the three integrated incumbents have printed it; SQM's Q1 is the third leg.
LAC issued 2026 capex guidance of $1.30–1.60 billion for Thacker Pass phase 1, with a milestone-driven schedule running through Q4. The largest single-year construction commitment of any US lithium project right now, and the most concrete timeline for first production from US-domestic refining capacity.
DOE Office of Critical Minerals announced up to $69 million for technologies advancing domestic refining of critical materials. Letters of intent due April 24, applications staggered through May 2026. Smaller dollars than ATVM, but this is where the disruptive process bets (DLE, alternative spodumene conversion) get scoped in.
First drawdown on the $2.23 billion DOE ATVM loan. Pegged to the long-dated Treasury rate with a 0% spread: the cheapest non-recourse construction debt available anywhere on the lithium chain right now. Real money flowing into US-domestic refining; LAC's cost-of-capital advantage gets concrete.
The Department of Energy announced the SPARK funding program in March 2026, making nearly $2B available for grid reconductoring and advanced transmission technology upgrades that expand transfer capacity on existing lines without requiring new corridors or right-of-way acquisition.
The US added 43 GW of solar in 2025, bringing cumulative installed capacity to 279 GW and marking the fifth consecutive year solar led all new electricity-generating capacity. Solar accounted for 54% of all new capacity added to the grid.
Texas generated 58,634 GWh from utility-scale solar in 2025, surpassing California's 53,713 GWh in the first full year where the gap showed up in generation data. Texas accounts for roughly 40% of planned 2026 utility-scale solar additions and 53% of planned battery storage capacity, driven entirely by market economics rather than a state clean electricity mandate.
The NRC voted to award TerraPower the first construction permit ever issued for a commercial non-light-water reactor: a 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor at Kemmerer, Wyoming. The safety review completed one month ahead of schedule and 11% under budget. Construction officially commenced April 23, 2026.
Zimbabwe announced a suspension of lithium-concentrate exports in late February 2026. Stack it with the ongoing CATL Jianxiawo halt and tightening Chinese spodumene flows, and the cumulative supply pull from the market is large enough to reprice the 2026 balance. Refiners with diversified feedstock take a quiet win.
The US installed 57.6 GWh of battery energy storage in 2025, up 52% year-over-year and the largest single-year total on record. Solar-plus-storage hybrid projects drove much of the growth; California approved the world's largest solar-plus-storage project at 1,150 MW / 4,600 MWh in Fresno County.
Battery-grade carbonate ran from ~$13.4k/t in early December to $26.3k/t by late January. Morgan Stanley and UBS now both forecast 2026 deficits. Producer-side names with ramp visibility into 2026–27 are quietly repricing, and the surplus consensus that anchored the past two years of lithium-equity selling is no longer defensible.
ERCOT enters 2026 with 13.9 GW of operational battery storage and Modo Energy projects 40–55 GW by 2029. Greenflash separately disclosed 10+ GWh earmarked for data-center power needs. The grid-storage demand vector for lithium is no longer theoretical, and the 'EV-only' lithium models are about to look stale.
After FERC issued compliance rulings through late 2025 on its landmark interconnection reform order, the US interconnection queue posted its first year-over-year decline in at least ten years, falling from a 2,600 GW peak to approximately 2,300 GW as stuck projects cleared or withdrew under the new cluster-study process.
The Trump administration announced a $1 billion federal loan for Constellation Energy's Crane Clean Energy Center, the former Three Mile Island Unit 1, in November 2025. Combined with Constellation's $1.6B investment and a 20-year Microsoft PPA, the project is now fully funded toward a 2027 restart target.
First Solar inaugurated its $1.1B, 3.5 GW Louisiana facility in mid-2025 and announced a $330M fifth factory in Gaffney, South Carolina in November, pushing projected US nameplate capacity to 17.7 GW by 2027. Total US manufacturing investment now exceeds $4 billion.
The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban on October 16, 2025 and replaced it with a quota framework: 18,125 tonnes through year-end, then 96,600 tonnes annually through 2027. Producers must prepay a 10% royalty within 48 hours and hold compliance certificates. Fewer than 50% of Q4 quota allocations resulted in actual exports.
The Department of Energy released a $155.9M sixth disbursement for Holtec International's Palisades nuclear restart in Michigan, bringing total loan draws to $491M of the $1.52B guarantee. Grid synchronization remains targeted for early 2026, the first-ever restart of a permanently retired US nuclear plant.
President Trump signed the reconciliation bill on July 4, 2025, making sweeping changes to IRA energy credits without a full repeal. Wind and solar projects lose access to the 45Y/48E credits unless construction begins by July 2026 or the project enters service before December 31, 2027. EV credits terminated for vehicles acquired after September 30; residential solar credit terminated for installations after December 31.
The Department of Defense announced it would purchase $400M in convertible preferred stock in MP Materials, plus a $150M DOD loan for a heavy rare earth separation plant in California. The deal commits MP to a 10,000 metric-tonne domestic magnet manufacturing target by 2028 and makes DOD the company's largest shareholder.
Final AD/CVD determinations against solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam took effect June 16, with some CVD rates exceeding 3,400%. The ITC confirmed injury; duties are now live. The ruling found Chinese subsidies routed through all four countries.
The Trump EPA proposed repeal of the Biden administration's May 2024 Greenhouse Gas Standards rule for fossil fuel power plants in June 2025, claiming the rollback would save over $1 billion per year. The DC Circuit placed the underlying litigation in abeyance in April; EPA targets a final repeal rule by December 2025.
The NRC approved NuScale's US460 design on May 29, the company's second design approval and the first for its uprated 77 MWe per-module configuration. A six-module plant delivers 462 MWe. The review completed ahead of schedule and under budget, and the approval allows future combined license applications to reference the design without re-review.
Executive Order 14241, signed March 20, formally invoked DPA Titles III and VII to fast-track domestic mineral project permitting and financing. Simultaneously, DOE announced $355M in grants: $275M for the Mines and Metals Capacity Expansion program and $80M for Mine of the Future technology proving grounds.
Rhodium Group's preliminary 2024 US emissions estimate showed a 0.2% decline year-over-year while GDP grew 2.7%. Emissions remain only 20% below 2005 levels against a pledged 50-52% reduction by 2030, requiring 7.6% annual reductions every year from 2025 onward to hit the target.
MISO's board unanimously approved Long Range Transmission Plan Tranche 2.1 in December 2024, a $21.8B portfolio of 24 projects spanning 3,631 miles across nine Midwest states. The plan builds a 765 kV backbone targeting service 2032-2034, with projected net benefits of up to $72B over 20 years.
China imposed export license requirements on antimony starting September 2024, then prohibited antimony exports to US military users outright in December. Chinese shipments fell 97% while prices rose 200%. The US has zero domestic antimony production; DOD responded with a $24.8M DPA investment in Idaho's Stibnite mine, though production is not expected before 2028.
DOE selected Pattern Energy's Southern Spirit Transmission project under its Transmission Facilitation Program, awarding up to $360M in capacity contract support for a 320-mile, 3,000 MW HVDC line between Rusk County, Texas and Choctaw County, Mississippi. If built, it would be ERCOT's first significant power tie to the eastern grid.
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